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Market Intelligence10 min readIntermediate

Q4 2024 China-US Freight Rate Report

Average rates reached $2,847/FEU in October, down 12% YoY. Here's our analysis of rate trends, capacity outlook, and what to expect through Lunar New Year.

Market Intelligence•Cubic Research
Published November 1, 2024
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Key Takeaways

  • 1Spot rates peaked in September at $3,200/FEU before softening
  • 2Contract rates remain stable, averaging 15-20% below 2023 levels
  • 3Blank sailings increasing as carriers manage capacity
  • 4Lunar New Year 2025 falls January 29, expect pre-LNY rush by mid-December
  • 5Red Sea diversions continue to impact capacity and schedules

October 2024 Rate Summary

China to US West Coast (USWC) rates averaged $2,847/FEU in October, representing:

  • -12% vs. October 2023
  • -11% vs. September 2024 peak
  • +180% vs. October 2019 (pre-pandemic baseline)

China to US East Coast (USEC) rates averaged $4,650/FEU, approximately 63% premium over USWC due to continued Red Sea avoidance adding 8-12 days transit via Cape of Good Hope.

Capacity and Service Outlook

Carriers have announced 15% blank sailing rate for November-December to support rates. Key impacts:

  • Fewer sailing options, especially on secondary port pairs
  • Potential equipment shortages at peak demand locations
  • Higher booking rejection rates for late reservations

Recommendation: Book November-December shipments 3-4 weeks in advance.

Want to see how Cubic compares to your current forwarder?

Lunar New Year 2025 Planning

Lunar New Year falls January 29, 2025. Factory shutdowns typically span 2-3 weeks (January 20 - February 10 in most cases).

Key dates:

  • Early December: Begin placing orders for pre-LNY shipment
  • Mid-December: Final cut-off for guaranteed pre-LNY departure
  • Late January - Mid February: Reduced factory capacity
  • Late February: Normal operations resume, post-LNY rush begins

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